Post by : Badri Ariffin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signaled that Russia could enhance its military presence in Ukraine should peace discussions falter. He stated that if Ukraine and its Western allies, particularly the United States, reject Moscow's stipulations, military action will continue to assert control over what he refers to as “historical lands.”

This warning arrives as U.S. President Donald Trump attempts to mediate a peace agreement to conclude nearly four years of conflict triggered by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, the diplomatic pathway is fraught with obstacles, as each nation has divergent expectations.

Putin's Stance on Military Options

In a recent gathering with high-ranking military leaders, Putin emphasized that while Russia seeks a diplomatic resolution, it is prepared to escalate military actions if peace talks collapse. He asserted that the Russian military holds the upper hand in current confrontations and is ready to make advances.

Putin expressed Russia’s ambition to establish a broader “buffer security zone” along its border, potentially involving further territorial claims against Ukraine. Ukraine and its Western allies firmly reject Russia’s territorial assertions, deeming them illegal and confrontational.

Furthermore, Putin extolled the competence of Russian troops, branding them as “battle-hardened” after prolonged engagements. He also commended Russia's advancing military technologies, specifically the Oreshnik missile system, touted as nearly impossible to intercept.

The Denial of Aggressive Intentions

Putin dismissed fears regarding potential Russian attacks on other European countries, calling such claims “lies” and accused Western leaders of using these fears for their political gain.

While he hinted at the possibility of future negotiations with Europe, he insisted that such discussions would only be feasible under different political leadership, suggesting a lack of faith in the current European administration’s willingness to engage.

Contrasting Demands in Ongoing Talks

The path to peace remains rocky as both Russia and Ukraine uphold completely divergent demands. Russia seeks:

• International acceptance of the four regions of Ukraine currently under Russian control.

• Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia.

• Withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from areas claimed by Russia, regardless of current control.

• Ukraine to renounce its ambitions of NATO membership permanently.

• Prohibition of NATO troops operating in Ukraine.

Ukraine's stance is clear:

• It will not concede control over regions that Russia has not fully seized.

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might pause NATO ambitions provided strong security commitments from Western allies.

• However, Kyiv still prefers NATO accession.

• There is no willingness to cede territory in Donetsk and other significant areas.

Zelenskyy described the U.S.-proposed peace plan as “not flawless” but potentially feasible, although territorial disputes remain a primary sticking point.

Trump's Involvement and Russia’s Perception

Putin acknowledged Donald Trump’s efforts towards peace, reiterating Trump’s assertion that early intervention might have prevented the war's commencement. He also lambasted previous Western administrations for their misplaced belief that Russia would crumble under economic sanctions.

U.S. representatives are currently engaging with Ukraine and European leaders, with plans to soon present the peace initiative to Russia. However, the disparity in demands casts doubt on potential advancements.

Anticipation of Renewed Aggression

During this meeting, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined objectives for intensified military operations in pivotal Ukrainian territories, asserting that recent gains in Donetsk position Russia favorably for a significant offensive.

Possible targets include:

• Ukrainian-controlled regions in Zaporizhzhia.

• Advancing into the Dnipropetrovsk area.

Belousov conveyed that Russia’s strategic goal for the upcoming year is to expedite military progress and enhance equipment capabilities, such as drones and jamming systems.

Ukraine Under Constant Assault

While negotiations persist, hostilities on the ground remain fierce, with Russia executing consistent missile and drone offensives against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Recent attacks resulted in:

• At least 26 injuries in Zaporizhzhia from glide bombs.

• Destruction of residences, schools, and other civic structures.

• Launch of numerous long-range drones during the night hours.

While Ukraine reported the downing of several Russian drones, not all were intercepted. Conversely, Russian authorities claimed to have thwarted over 90 Ukrainian drones directed at Russian territories.

In Russia, drones targeted locations in Krasnodar and Voronezh, resulting in civilian injuries, structural damage, and power disruptions.

Uncertain Outlook for Peace

The ongoing conflict underscored the challenges in achieving peace. Russia desires lasting control over Ukrainian territories it claims historically, while Ukraine steadfastly defends its sovereignty against territorial cessions obtained through force.

Though Trump’s peace efforts may progress dialogue between both parties, fundamental disagreements regarding territory, NATO affiliation, and security guarantees remain unresolved.

#Global