Post by : Shakul

India is likely to witness a weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon in 2026 after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised its seasonal rainfall forecast downward. The weather agency now expects the country to receive only 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season, placing the forecast firmly in the below-normal category.

The latest revision comes after an earlier projection issued in April had estimated rainfall at 92 percent of the LPA. Officials from the Ministry of Earth Sciences said changing ocean and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific region have prompted the downgrade. The development of El Nino conditions is now considered the primary factor behind the weaker monsoon outlook.

According to meteorological experts, El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This phenomenon disrupts global weather patterns and often weakens India's monsoon circulation. The altered atmospheric system can reduce moisture-bearing winds and shift rainfall away from the Indian subcontinent, leading to lower precipitation levels across large parts of the country.

The regional forecast suggests that Northwest India may continue to receive near-normal rainfall, offering some relief to states in the region. However, Central India, South Peninsular India, Northeast India and the crucial monsoon core zone are all expected to record below-normal rainfall. These regions include some of the country's most important agricultural belts, making the forecast particularly significant for farmers and rural communities.

Weather scientists have also warned that a stronger El Nino event could intensify during the second half of the monsoon season, especially between July and September. If this scenario unfolds, rainfall deficits could become more pronounced in several states, increasing pressure on reservoirs, groundwater supplies and irrigation systems that support millions of farmers.

The IMD has further indicated that rainfall during June is likely to remain below normal across much of the country. At the same time, above-normal temperatures are expected in several regions, potentially worsening heat-related stress on crops and water resources. Despite these concerns, weather officials remain optimistic about the timely arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala in the coming days.

Agriculture experts note that the southwest monsoon contributes nearly 70 percent of India's annual rainfall and plays a critical role in the cultivation of kharif crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds. Any significant rainfall shortfall could impact crop production, rural incomes and food prices. Authorities will continue monitoring evolving El Nino conditions and release updated forecasts as the monsoon season progresses.

#India News #Climate #Weather