Post by : Rameen Ariff

China is swiftly moving away from diesel trucks, opting for electric alternatives that could greatly affect global fuel demand and the future of heavy transportation. The country's trucking industry, previously heavily reliant on diesel, is embracing electrification at a pace that exceeds many forecasts.

According to data from Commercial Vehicle World in Beijing, battery-operated trucks comprised 22% of new heavy truck sales in the first half of 2025, a significant increase from just 9.2% during the same period in 2024. British research firm BMI anticipates that electric trucks could account for nearly 46% of new sales this year, with projections of up to 60% in 2026.

Heavy trucks are vital for modern economies, facilitating long-distance goods transport but also contributing significantly to carbon emissions. In 2019, road freight represented a third of all transport-related carbon dioxide emissions, prompting the urgent need to electrify trucks to address climate change challenges.

Transitioning to electric trucks has encountered hurdles due to the heavy batteries that limit cargo capacity compared to diesel models. While liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks have been marketed as a cleaner interim solution, sales data shows that electric models are quickly outpacing LNG alternatives. In fact, electric trucks now lead in sales over LNG models in China, indicating a looming reduction in diesel and imported LNG demand in coming years.

The surge in electric truck sales can be attributed to lower prices, government incentives, and better infrastructure. Truck owners have benefited from a 2024 initiative providing up to $19,000 for trading old vehicles for electric replacements. Additionally, logistics hubs spanning the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing, and Shanghai have implemented heavy-duty fast-charging stations, with CATL launching battery-swapping networks along major highways.

Despite initial costs being two to three times higher for electric trucks compared to diesel, their energy efficiency and reduced operational costs result in lifetime savings of 10% to 26%, as noted by Chinese researchers. Consequently, fleet operators, motivated by financial performance, are increasingly turning to electric trucks.

On a global scale, China’s initiatives play a significant role. As the largest exporter of passenger vehicles, the country is keenly entering the electric heavy-duty truck market, with shipments to regions including the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and the United States surging recently and plans to enter European markets by 2026. Key players such as BYD and Sany Heavy Industry are spearheading this initiative, establishing new manufacturing sites in Hungary and other strategic locations to comply with international emission standards.

The impact is evident in declining diesel consumption. In June 2024, diesel usage in China fell to 3.9 million barrels per day, marking an 11% year-on-year reduction—the largest drop since mid-2021. Analysts from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis predict that diesel demand in China may decrease at a quicker pace than previously thought, indicating that LNG trucking may struggle to achieve a robust global presence outside of China.

Experts view the rise of electric trucks in China as a crucial yet underreported aspect of the global energy transition. As the nation institutes tougher vehicle emission standards aiming for greenhouse gas reductions, companies depending solely on fossil-fuel-powered vehicles will encounter increasing regulatory challenges. Meanwhile, international manufacturers, including Volvo and Scania, closely monitor China’s electrification progress, understanding the competitive and environmental ramifications it presents.

China’s shift toward electrifying its heavy transport sector is not merely an environmental endeavor; it is reshaping the economics of trucking, influencing fuel consumption, and altering global trade dynamics. As advancements in battery technology emerge and infrastructure develops alongside the opening of international markets for Chinese electric trucks, the diesel-powered transport sector may experience a fundamental downturn. Analysts foresee that these changes will not only redefine China’s domestic market but also impact fuel imports, emissions targets, and the broader global transport industry.

The revolution in electric trucking is underway, with China at the forefront, marking a significant milestone in the global transition toward sustainable, efficient transportation.

#Global