Post by : Anis Farhan

Currency rebound sparks debate

After years of depreciation and investor uncertainty, the Malaysian ringgit (MYR) is staging an unexpected comeback. By mid-2025, the currency has appreciated nearly 9% against the US dollar, making it one of Asia’s top-performing currencies this year. The rebound comes as a surprise to many market observers who had grown used to the ringgit hovering near multi-decade lows. For a country where trade accounts for over 130% of GDP, this reversal has far-reaching implications—not just for economic sentiment, but for inflation control, investor confidence, and fiscal planning.

Yet despite the rally, economists are divided. Is this appreciation a result of meaningful structural reform? Or is it a reflection of cyclical factors—like a softer US dollar and higher commodity prices—that may soon reverse? In other words, is the ringgit on a firm path to long-term recovery, or merely enjoying a temporary tailwind?

Behind the bounce: Global forces and local momentum

Malaysia’s currency revival is being driven by a confluence of internal and external factors. Globally, the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady through much of 2025 has reduced pressure on emerging market currencies, providing relief to the ringgit. In tandem, rising prices of key Malaysian exports—particularly palm oil, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas—have boosted foreign exchange inflows, helping strengthen the balance of payments.

Domestically, several macroeconomic signals have improved. The country’s current account surplus widened to 3.2% of GDP in Q2 2025, driven by robust export growth and a rebound in tourism. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment inflows touched RM57 billion in the first half of the year, marking a significant vote of confidence in Malaysia’s business environment. Much of this capital is flowing into high-tech sectors, renewable energy, and industrial parks in Johor and Penang.

Adding to this positive momentum is a newly stable political climate. Since the 2022 general elections, Malaysia has enjoyed relative government continuity—something that had eluded the country in the previous five years. This has allowed the government to push forward with long-delayed reforms and restore investor trust.

Structural reforms or superficial signals?

While the current optimism is undeniable, critics warn against assuming the ringgit’s rebound is permanent. Several analysts argue that the appreciation reflects global macro easing more than it does domestic strength. For instance, much of the currency gain coincided with a broader slide in the US dollar and capital rotation into Asia-Pacific assets. When these conditions reverse—as they often do—the ringgit could once again find itself under pressure.

More fundamentally, skeptics question whether Malaysia has done enough to build long-term economic resilience. Although the government has unveiled plans to diversify the economy, reduce dependency on oil and gas revenues, and raise productivity, actual implementation remains slow. Key reforms in labor mobility, education policy, and tax modernization have yet to show material results.

Bank Negara Malaysia’s relatively conservative monetary policy has also drawn mixed reviews. While the central bank has kept interest rates steady and inflation under control, critics argue that more could be done to strengthen the ringgit’s international profile—especially in the wake of regional competition from Singapore and Indonesia.

Investor sentiment: cautiously optimistic

On the ground, investor sentiment toward Malaysia has clearly improved. Portfolio investors are returning to Malaysian bonds and equities, encouraged by currency stability and signs of economic discipline. Global banks such as HSBC and JP Morgan have revised their ringgit outlooks upward, citing manageable fiscal deficits and steady GDP growth projections of around 4.5% for 2025.

At the same time, corporate Malaysia is adjusting its strategy to capitalize on the stronger ringgit. Importers are locking in lower costs for raw materials, while manufacturers are renegotiating currency clauses in export contracts. Tourism operators, buoyed by a recovery in Chinese and Gulf region arrivals, are balancing concerns about rising costs with optimism about higher volumes.

Despite these signs of health, there is caution in the air. Market observers remain watchful of external risks—particularly geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea, trade uncertainties with the EU, and the volatile price movements of key export commodities. A sudden shock in any of these areas could quickly erase the ringgit’s recent gains.

Implications for households and businesses

For Malaysian households, the ringgit’s recovery is a welcome development. Imported goods—especially electronics, food products, and travel services—have become more affordable, offering some relief in the face of high living costs. Educational expenses for students studying abroad are also easing, thanks to improved exchange rates.

Businesses, meanwhile, are seeing mixed impacts. While exporters face pricing pressure from a stronger currency, import-dependent sectors—such as retail, construction, and healthcare—are benefiting from lower input costs. Property developers are particularly bullish, as a stronger ringgit reduces the cost of imported building materials and could entice more foreign buyers to invest in Malaysia’s real estate market.

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), often vulnerable to currency swings, are experiencing improved operating margins. Still, many are wary of volatility and are turning to hedging instruments and forex advisory services to protect themselves from future fluctuations.

A turning point or a temporary high?

The future of the ringgit will likely depend on Malaysia’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline, accelerate structural reforms, and remain attractive to both investors and skilled labor. If the current momentum is used wisely to deepen institutional capacity, expand digital infrastructure, and uplift the education system, the ringgit may well be on the path to long-term strength.

However, if the government fails to build on this window of opportunity, and if global commodity prices or capital flows turn against Malaysia, the rally may prove short-lived.

What’s clear is that the ringgit’s recovery has bought Malaysia time—and confidence. The challenge now is to translate that currency gain into real economic transformation.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Currency movements are subject to complex economic factors and readers should consult a financial expert before making investment decisions.