Post by : Badri Ariffin

With Ugandans gearing up to vote this week, one influential figure shaping the nation’s political landscape isn't on the ticket. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of President Yoweri Museveni and the head of the military, is at the forefront of national conversations around power, succession, and Uganda's democratic future.

President Museveni, at 81 years old, aims for another term that could edge him closer to 50 years in power. Kainerugaba has been perceived as a likely successor for years. Although he has stepped back from an overt political campaign to allow his father to run, his influence continues to expand.

As a four-star general, Kainerugaba assumed the role of army chief nearly two years ago, shortly after he voiced his readiness to lead the nation at a political rally. This appointment effectively postponed his presidential ambitions, dependent on his father's tenure. Critics, however, assert that it firmly places the military—a pivotal national institution—in the hands of the president's family.

For many citizens, the concept of hereditary power is no longer seen as implausible. While officials have historically dismissed suggestions of the so-called “Muhoozi Project” as mere rumors, Kainerugaba has been candid about his aspirations. In 2023, he expressed on social media his expectation to succeed his father, warning that dissenters would be left “very disappointed.”

A Controversial Ascent

Kainerugaba's swift military rise, starting in the late 1990s, has been contentious. Allies within the security forces bolster his position, and as a presumed heir, he draws loyalty pledges from aspiring politicians.

In February 2024, just prior to his appointment as army chief, President Museveni delegated significant power as commander-in-chief to the military’s head. This shift granted Kainerugaba unprecedented authority, traditionally reserved for the presidency, including the power to promote senior officers and establish new military branches.

Political historian Mwambutsya Ndebesa from Makerere University argues that Kainerugaba's influence surpasses any army chief's power in history. He contends that a family succession appears almost unavoidable.

“Honestly, I don’t foresee any constitutional alternatives,” Ndebesa stated. “Elections appear to merely legitimize authority without achieving democratic aims. Any shift from Museveni will be dictated by military leaders.”

An Emerging Cult of Personality

As President Museveni provides no indication of a retirement timeline, a personality cult around his son has begun to materialize. Kainerugaba's supporters publicly celebrate his birthday, and campaign materials often showcase the symbols of his political faction, the Patriotic League of Uganda. Last year, Speaker of Parliament Anita Among even referred to him as “God the Son,” emphasizing his growing significance in political discourse.

In a landscape dominated by military power and a ruling party lacking clear alternative successors, many view Kainerugaba as the frontrunner for leadership, particularly if his father's exit is abrupt.

Some have urged him to take power by force. Analyst Yusuf Serunkuma publicly advocated for Kainerugaba to “pretend to coup his dad,” positioning himself as a hero of the opposition. He noted that the perception of an easy ascent to the presidency does not align well with the general’s reputation.

In contrast, Kainerugaba's advocates portray him as humble and outspoken against corruption, positing him as Uganda’s best hope for a peaceful leadership transition—the first since independence in 1962.

Controversies and Concerns

Criticism of Kainerugaba's recent actions raises notable alarms. He often shares inflammatory and aggressive posts on social media, threatening opposition figures. In 2022, even his father distanced himself from Kainerugaba’s remark about capturing Nairobi swiftly—a claim that temporarily stripped him of military responsibilities.

Bobi Wine, a leading opposition figure, argues that Kainerugaba's military has overtaken electoral processes, alleging mistreatment of his supporters by soldiers. Recent reports from Amnesty International detail a harsh crackdown on dissenting voices, including a violent incident at one of Wine’s rallies.

Kainerugaba rarely engages in interviews, limiting direct commentary. His supporters downplay allegations, with Frank Gashumba, vice chairman of the Patriotic League, asserting that no one is targeting Wine.

A Dissenting Voice

Within the ruling party, Kahinda Otafiire, a retired general and current interior minister, is the only senior figure to publicly critique hereditary succession. He has urged Kainerugaba to secure leadership based on personal merit rather than familial ties.

“If you argue that the son should inherit from the father, his son will also seek to inherit from him,” Otafiire cautioned in a television discussion. “This creates a system of succession that undermines democracy, the very principle we fought for.”

As Uganda prepares for elections, Muhoozi Kainerugaba serves as a dual symbol of continuity and escalating concern. His potential paths to the presidency—via the ballot box, military intervention, or a seamless transition from his father—underscore the significant role he plays in the nation’s political future.

#Global News