Post by : Rameen Ariff

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s high-profile visit to New Delhi has reignited discussions in Washington over India’s growing closeness to Moscow amid shifting global alliances. Michael Kugelman, Senior Fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, told NDTV that while India celebrated the visit for its strong optics and wide-ranging agreements, it has raised concerns within the US administration about the direction of India-Russia relations.

The summit saw the release of a detailed joint statement and a renewal of commercial and military cooperation, a development likely to be interpreted in Washington as India bolstering Russia at a time when the US is focused on reviving peace talks in Ukraine. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parallel outreach to Kyiv and messaging emphasizing that “this is not an era of war,” Kugelman notes that the visit highlights the limits of India’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarized world.

Timing has added to the unease. The Quad summit has been postponed, former President Donald Trump’s visit to India delayed, and ongoing US sanctions on Moscow have complicated matters. India’s decision to reduce Russian oil imports shortly before Putin’s arrival underscores the challenges New Delhi faces as it navigates competing demands from both Russia and the West.

While India’s new gas deal with the US may ease some concerns, Kugelman warned that Washington may still expect additional concessions. Trade tensions remain a critical issue, as India braces for potential fallout from US tariffs and mixed messages regarding Trump’s stance on India’s economy and relations with Modi. Historically, countries seeking tariff relief from Trump have had to make significant concessions, adding to India’s diplomatic balancing act.

Kugelman highlighted the potential stabilizing influence of Sergio Gor, the new US ambassador to India and a close Trump ally who supports strong India-US ties. He also differentiated between the hardline rhetoric from the White House and the more partnership-oriented approaches of the US State Department, Defense Department, and Congress, noting that bipartisan support for India remains strong despite recent tensions.

Turning to South Asia’s security dynamics, Kugelman assessed the recent India-Pakistan conflict and the fragile ceasefire. He warned that India’s red lines, particularly regarding Pakistan-backed terror attacks being treated as acts of war, could result in renewed hostilities under the right provocation. While Pakistan’s military and civilian leadership gained public support during the conflict, controversial constitutional amendments and Army Chief Asim Munir’s elevation to field marshal could destabilize the country’s internal and external posture.

Kugelman also discussed China’s expanding regional influence and the implications for India and the US. He noted that the Trump administration’s China policy remains uncertain, with a mix of confrontational rhetoric and pragmatic restraint. While economic competition with Beijing is likely to continue, Washington is expected to avoid moves that could provoke retaliation from China, potentially reshaping Indo-Pacific dynamics and complicating India’s strategic planning.

Despite these challenges, Kugelman expressed cautious optimism about India-US relations. Both governments are motivated to maintain a strong partnership and continue high-level negotiations. “It’s a difficult moment, but not a breaking point,” he said. “There is a genuine desire in Washington to get this relationship back on track. It’s just a matter of time.”

#Global News