Post by : Saif Rahman

Russia has reiterated its stringent conditions for halting hostilities in Ukraine. Kremlin foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov announced on Friday that a ceasefire will only occur if Ukrainian troops withdraw entirely from the Donbas region. His remarks were cited by Russian media outlet Kommersant, attracting significant international interest.

This assertion underscores Russia's reluctance to reach a compromise, as it demands complete control over Donetsk and Luhansk—the two territories constituting Donbas. Currently, Moscow holds all of Luhansk and around 80% of Donetsk, but critical urban centers such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk still resist Ukrainian control.

Ushakov was emphatic: “A ceasefire is only achievable following the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces.” He warned that if Ukraine does not acquiesce through dialogue, Russia will resort to military force to secure the area.

A Fresh Vision for Donbas Governance

Kommersant reported that Ushakov elaborated on potential peace arrangements, suggesting that after an agreement, the Russian army may not need to occupy the Ukrainian-held sections of Donbas. Instead, the Russian National Guard—known as Rosgvardiya—could oversee those regions.

In this scenario, neither Russian nor Ukrainian military personnel would be stationed in these areas, but Russian law enforcement and the national guard would be deployed to “maintain order” and facilitate everyday existence.

This proposal indicates Russia's desire for sustained influence in the area while possibly easing its military footprint. However, any presence of Russian law enforcement in Ukrainian territory remains unacceptable to Kyiv.

The Role of the Russian National Guard

Rosgvardiya serves as a robust internal security apparatus, comprising roughly 400,000 members. It has been active in Ukraine since the conflict's inception in 2022. Some of its units hail from Chechnya, showcasing a commitment to Russia’s military objectives.

A 2023 law now permits the national guard to wield heavy armaments like tanks and artillery, signifying an escalation in Rosgvardiya’s responsibilities and combat capacity.

Implications for Peace Negotiations

Ushakov's statements highlight Russia's insistence on comprehensive control of Donbas before considering an end to hostilities. For Ukraine, conceding these territories is inconceivable, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asserted that the nation will not surrender its land.

This situation creates a narrow avenue for peace negotiations. Both nations are firmly entrenched in positions vital to their national interests: Russia seeks acknowledgement of its dominion over Donbas, while Ukraine aims to safeguard its people and territory.

Despite ongoing hopes for dialogue, Ushakov’s comments indicate that Moscow’s approach has not softened.

A Prolonged Conflict Ahead

As winter sets in, the war continues to impact countless lives and disrupt daily routines for millions. Donbas remains the epicenter of the fighting, with the prospect of Rosgvardiya supplanting the Russian military in parts of the region raising further questions regarding Russia’s long-term strategy in Ukraine.

At present, a ceasefire seems far off, with both parties steadfast in their positions, and the battlefield will likely dictate the future landscape of the region.

#Global News